Charts to Chew On: A Juxtaposition of a January.

Contextualizing monthly consumer sentiment and market momentum. Data as of January 31, 2023. Revised.

While anxiety amongst investors remains palpable, January marked a jubilant start to the year — at least on the surface — with the S&P and NASDAQ returning +7% and +12% respectively. Of note, this marked the first January gain in 3 years. A welcome reprieve post 2022’s bloodbath, might we actually be turning the corner or just realizing relief in a dead cat bounce? If you ask most venture capitalists, they would lean on the latter as private market positioning arguably feels more cautious than ever despite constructive consumer data points (improving sentiment, labor resiliency, tampering inflation, and a step-up in the household savings rate, among other variables) in the first month of the year. While the ongoing Fed meeting could signal a welcomed shift in the race to raise rates, debate remains as to whether any potential upside is already priced in. Furthermore, as these goldilocks conditions meet what feels like rising risks to out quarter earnings in the face of weakening consumer and corporate spending, I’d be very curious to hear where others suspect things might settle from here...

Nonetheless, as we collectively grapple for meaning via metrics, please find a selection of breadcrumbs below that are informing my own mental model on what the macro backdrop morphs into from here.

Note: Data reflective of January 31, 2023. This does not constitute investment advice.

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